Customer Base Diagnostic

The Concept

The Diagnostic answers the question Health Checks surface but cannot fully resolve: how is the customer base moving over time, and what does that movement mean for the investment thesis? It tracks 12 to 48 months of observed value migration between cohorts rather than modelling forward from a single snapshot.

Surfaces

• Cohort movement — which cohorts are growing, which are deteriorating, and how fast composition is shifting beneath the revenue line
• Forward revenue scenarios — do nothing, intervene on high-value at-risk customers, or develop the next tier
• Revenue quality — how much current revenue is durable versus migrating to attrition
• Value creation levers and the customer populations they sit in
• Financial bridge — customer movement translated into revenue range inputs for the model

Refreshed Runs

Re-run monthly as standard so customer scores stay current and movement is tracked period by period rather than captured once. Cadence can be adjusted at scoping, and output feeds management reporting, operating reviews, board packs and CRM.

Required Data

Two Use Cases

• Operating partners in the hold — is composition shifting in ways management is not flagging, and are the 100-day levers still the right ones?
• Exit-stage sponsors — the customer evidence layer that answers buyer questions on concentration, cohort quality, churn and durability before they are asked

Market Context